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1 A fair coin is flipped until either HHH or THH is obtained If HHH occurs first, then Player A wins, and if THH occurs first, then Player B wins For example, the sequence HTTTTHH is a win for Player B because THH occurs in the last three flips, but HHH does not appear Although both sequences are equally likely when flipping a coin three times, one of the two players is a favorite to win Write a Perl program to simulate this process, find who wins, and then estimate Player A s probability of winning This problem is just one case of a game described by Walter Penney See pages 59-63 of John Haigh s Taking Chances: Winning with Probability [50] for a description of Penney s game and how it has counterintuitive properties 4.

= cos(8 new )

= (12O{Qj(5.06 ( 27.65 ) = 607.2 ( 27.65

= IIui/

K for the total numberof users,

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2 Suppose two people are betting the outcome of a fair coin where Player A loses a dollar if the flip is tails and otherwise wins a dollar A running tally of Player A s net winnings or loses is kept where the initial value is $0 For example, if the game starts off with HTTHT, then PlayerA has $1, $0, -$l, $0, -$l, respectively Write a Perl simulation of this game for 20 tosses, then compute the proportion of the flips where Player A is ahead or even Then repeat this simulation 10,000times The result will be 10,000 proportions each based on 20 flips One guesses that since the coin is fair, that Player A should be ahead about 50% of the time, but this is not true Surprisingly, the most probable scenario is that Player A is either ahead or behind the entire game.

The Addresses section of the Contacts window can store up to three addresses designated as Home, Business, and Other. Select the one to display by clicking the down-arrow adjacent to the Address box. Click the adjacent button to open the Check Address dialog box (Figure 29-12), in which you can enter or edit address details. By default, Outlook displays this dialog box automatically if you enter an address that appears to be incomplete or unclear. One of the addresses for a contact can be designated as the mailing address by selecting the corresponding option. Outlook uses this address when you are doing a mail merge using Outlook contact data. Mail merge is discussed later in this chapter.

Most of the basic examples presented earlier in this chapter use functions or formulas that perform conditional counting. The advanced counting formulas represented here contain more complex examples for counting worksheet cells, based on various types of criteria.

3 J(t ) - - = 2

Two bulky boxes land on the mailroom floor with a thud. The client cuts open the first box to find seven, five-inch binders bursting with a consultant s proposal. Sighing, he rips into the second box, resigned to finding more of the same. Instead, peering into the box, he spies several pieces of laminated wood and a plastic bag containing screws and bolts. The packet also includes the assembly instructions for the specially designed bookcase that the consultant thoughtfully provided for storing the voluminous proposal. Sometimes it takes a bookcase full of binders to hold a proposal that meets a client s requirements; in other instances, a one-page e-mail will suffice. Whatever its dimensions, the consulting proposal is a powerful, yet misused marketing tool that often moves the selling process backward, instead of forward. A great proposal can be a decisive factor in winning a project but it will not, by itself, secure the job for you. On the other hand, a poorly produced proposal can instantly unravel all the hard work you ve done to persuade the client that you are the right choice for the job.

See pages 64-69 of John Haigh s Taking Chances: Winning with Probability [50] for a discussion of this process For a mathematical exposition, see section 1114 of An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications by William Feller [44]..

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